Uran Forum

nach der "DFC-Meldung" zu 0,36 Euro komplett verkauft und aufgrund:
1. https://x.com/baelde_jonas/status/1886120532833112539
2. https://x.com/UraniumFrank13/status/1888291097199390758
die doppelte Menge zu durchschn. ca. 0,32 Euro gekauft. Dafür ist mein gehebelter SPUT tiefrot ....  

Ein Waffenstillstand ist nun hochwahrscheinlich, was bedeutet, dass Sanktionen auf russische Rohstoffe schrittweise aufgehoben werden. Am Tag vor dem Überfall auf die Ukraine stand die Unze bei $42. Guckt euch die KGVs von euren Titel vor dem Krieg an und vergleicht die mit jetzt. Da kann es durchaus noch weitere 60-70% runtergehen und von den Juniors werden einige ins Gras beißen. Die einzige Ausnahme ist ja bekannt, da könnten aber auch westliche Abnehmer Verträge aufkündigen weil die Transportkosten ab $60 zu hoch sind.  

Also den Rohstoff, Yellow Cake, hat man nur in geringen Mengen aus Russland bezogen. Aufbereitung der Brennstäbe war der Deal. Uran wird übrigens nicht in Unzen, sondern in Pfund gehandelt.  

Die erklärte Politik Trump´s ist: MAGA. Da gibt es kein zurück zu irgendeiner Abhängigkeit von irgendeinem Drittstaat! Denn das schadet sofort dem großen vaterländischen Ziel....  

noch ein Aspekt aus dem wöchentlichen Newsletter von Lobo Tiggre zur
aktuellen spotprice Schwäche:

I’m very bullish on uranium... but I must admit that there’s a new wrinkle in the story. No, I’m not worried about reports of a Russian drone hitting the Chernobyl containment dome. It’s the possibility that Trump might set up a new “Megatons to Megawatts” program. He’s just said: “President Putin and I agreed that we were going to do it in a very big way. There's no reason for us to be building brand-new nuclear weapons. We already have so many, you could destroy the world 50 times over, 100 times over. And here we are building new nuclear weapons.” Maybe this is just talk, but the truth is that spot uranium has now fallen lower than I thought it would.
I’m still inclined to see this as an opportunity. But… if a significant amount of weapons-grade uranium is down-blended to create reactor fuel, it would create a new source of secondary supply. This too may be something uranium bulls may not want to hear—but you know what my job is. I’ll need to see what the potential scale is here before I can work this into my model. It may not even happen. But it’s something I’ll be watching closely.
Why is spot down so much if nothing has changed? There are reports that fewer Japanese reactor restarts are bringing more secondary supply to market. I think this is unlikely, even if there are fewer restarts. More likely, in my mind, is companies that bought uranium while it was cheap in order to finance mine construction selling to the spot market to do just that. If so, we will see this documented in future filings.  

hier noch n neues video mit justin huhn zu dem thema.
fazit:
rahmenbedingungen bleiben auf lange sicht in takt.
keine panik.
wir bleiben looooooooooooong... ;-)  

vergessen, Mist..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIE7ruhidus  

"What happens with Enriched #Uranium for US Utilities if the war ends and most sanctions are summarily lifted?

In line with Cameco comments on the topic and general consensus in the sector - very little is likely to materially change. That said, I won’t even guess what investor sentiment would do or how under-informed speculators will behave.

So let’s go over why very little would be likely to materially change:

1. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Law is not a “Sanction” it cannot be lifted by Executive Order — it would require Congressional repeal of a law that passed with unanimous bipartisan support. A law designed to force the restart of a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain. Passage of that law was required to unlock $3.4B in funds for building and expanding domestic production of LEU and HALEU. It is extremely unlikely that this law is repealed because ending dependence on Russian conversion & enrichment is a national security priority, and a national energy priority (reinforced under Wright’s DoE.) Also, the funds have already been awarded and in the case of both Orano & Urenco - have been met with billions in additional private spending commitments (along w lesser amounts by other vendors eg $60m from Centrus.) And, a reminder, this law prohibits all Russian Uranium Imports as of 12-31-27 even if the fuel buyer is holding one of the five Waivers issued by DoE.

2. Russia’s retaliatory “Temporary Export Ban” is Russian “policy” or counter-sanction (not law) that is set to last through 12-31-25 (and then be subject to renewal) but it could potentially be lifted (or export licenses issued) however, only Waiver holders would be eligible to order material. Now, this is where timing matters: There are only 22 months left until the Import Ban fully kicks-in. How many more months go by until peace is negotiated — if it is at all? The point is that even if Russia is inclined to encourage orders (post war) the window for turnaround shipments is ticking toward closure.

3. In my opinion, even Waiver holders are no longer holding out hope of receiving Russian EUP in the wake of multiple sailings from St. Petersburg that did not contain material. As such, alternative vendors are being contracted - as evidenced by soaring prices for Conversion and Enrichment Services since Nov ‘24.

In the big picture, the requirement for Uranium U3O8, (the feedstock for Enrichment Services) is a worldwide calculation — no matter who performs the Services.  As such, the structural supply deficit (inadequate to fuel existing reactors - never mind new demand) hasn’t changed, it was only been temporarily delayed by a year of uncertainties around the likely permanent disruption of a 30-year method of procurement."

https://x.com/leggett_john/status/1892640846811394303

 

"People really think another megatons to megawatts program would be that detrimental to the uranium market?

Using chatGPT, cause I’m lazy, ~39Mlbs from the prior megatons to megawatts came from 20,000 warheads.

We’re not at that same level as before. Bring on nuclear disarmament"

https://x.com/UraniumTails/status/1890571828764020942

"Based off the figures on centrus website and at ratio of 8 to 1 natural to leu
20,000 warheads equals 248 million lbs of uranium, it took 18 yrs to complete the program so that's less 14million lbs a year at $870 per lb leu in 2014 dollars"
 

"Most likely outcome is that it becomes the US Strategic Uranium Stockpile and/ or gets downblended to 19.75% to produce HALEU which dovetails nicely into the projected timeline of the deployment of SMRs.
Neither of those is in the current supply/ demand projections."

"US military uranium stockpiles are at/near historical lows. Warheads downblended already feed the HEU needs of the nuclear navy, which consumes ~5+mlbs/yr. The below take is right on, IMO"

https://x.com/uraniuminsider/status/1890498182825541868  

Cameco im gestrigen CC dazu:

"We have and I can tell you, the spot market is not where utilities go to meet their annual run raterequirements. It's completely discretionary and its non-fundamental. Of the 46 million pounds ofuranium that transacted in the spot market last year, only about 15% was bought by utilities. As isthe case every year, a great deal of the spot activity was churn.
Traders, brokers and financial players passing around  100 000 pounds 5 times, which becomes 500 000 pounds of reported volume, that's not a reliable source of supply for the more than 175 million pounds a year needed to fuel the global nuclear fleet annually. And that's not a source ofsupply that can underpin the long-term operation of a nuclear reactor for 60 or more years.Instead, utilities are buying uranium and the fuel cycle services in the long-term market, yearsahead of time, sometimes even for the decade to come or longer.  "      

"...Based on global fuel requirements, utilities have bought less than 40% of the uranium they need tooperate through to 2040, that translates to about 2.1 billion pounds of uranium that is yet to bepurchased and is putting an awful lot of pressure on supply in the mid-2030s, a time when severalmajor global primary supply sources are thinning out, and the investments in construction of newmines required to replace them have not even started..."  

"...Based on global fuel requirements, utilities have bought less than 40% of the uranium they need tooperate through to 2040, that translates to about 2.1 billion pounds of uranium that is yet to bepurchased and is putting an awful lot of pressure on supply in the mid-2030s, a time when severalmajor global primary supply sources are thinning out, and the investments in construction of newmines required to replace them have not even started. ..."  

Cameco Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEXPp_0Qm9Q