Glen, I totally agree to an extent. Current Minimum fair value that I estimate is $49 when using FMCN as a reference point.
Of course CCME is growing faster than FMCN so it is worth a lot more so I can see how you get your $ 100 target, I'm just saying MINIMUM. What FMCN has going for them to establish that PE is 2-3 years of being established in the market and plenty of institutional coverage and support as a result of being listed on our exchange for that period. Let's call that period an initiation period. CCME is just currently starting its initiation period now.
CCME can raise their ad rates 50 to 200% and still have plenty of customers based on their current existing rates which are so ungodly low compare to existing competitive ad rates. It is scary. As you probably know, they haven't done so just so they can expand effortlessly.
That is why I sunk so heavily into CCME. Superior cash flow, high margins, expanding business, ability to raise prices up to 50-200% easily, no debt, cash rich, no desire to dilute further, shareholder friendly, and expanding in a nation with a 10% GDP. I was telling my wife that the only we could lose on this is if it were a fraud but I kept telling her, if it is a fraud, it is the best fraud I've ever seen.
We can easily see a $3.50 to $4.50 EPS by this time next year if they progress with bi-annual ad rate increases of 10-15% as ad demand increases, which is totally sustainable. Slap a 20 PE on that!
And then don't forget the 5% yuan revaluation just for 2010. Add that to our EPS for the end of this year and probably at least an additional 5% for 2011!
I think that the days of Short BS have passed.
We may get a few bumps along the road, but the days of Institutional Accumulation and Support have just started to begin.
I'm dying to hear what Morgan Stanley has to say in the coming months.
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