Der USA Bären-Thread

den Niedergang der Börsen in dieser Woche liegt am verlorenen Finale des FCB. So was erzeugt Depressionen. Hält allerdings nie allzu lange an.  EU-Subventionen für Barca und Real wären ein Grund die EU zu verlassen. Dann würde es richtig böse werden. Allerdings wären 2 Konkurrenten dann weg vom Fenster.  ;o)  

die Versicherungsmetropole München wird immer genügend Prämieneinnahmen für zweifelhafte Investments haben ;-))  

"fkuebler, auch du, mein Sohn Brutus?
ein unschuldiges Opfer des BT ??"

... und für alle bisherigen Leiden unrter dem Strich auch ganz gut entschädigt... "Schmerzensgeld" ist eben auch nicht leicht verdient... Aber ehrlich... ;-)

Und bei dem tollen Japan-Chart - in der Tat immer noch mein Lieblingschart - könnte ich manchmal übersehen, dass er sich mit riesigen Aufs und Abs immerhin über zehn Jahre erstreckt, wenn ich - mit Gier-vernebeltem Blick - rucki-zucki mein Riesenpayout erwarte, allerspätestens nächste Woche... ;-)

Man kann sich bei dem Chart, von dem ich immer noch glaube, dass er eine ganz grobe Ähnlichkeit mit künftigen Verläufen haben wird, ja an viele schöne Stellen "hineinträumen"... Ganz genauso gibt es aber auch Albtraumstellen, in die man geraten kann. Die schönste ist diejenige für alle supervorsichtigen und deshalb etwas zögerlichen Bären: nämlich sich Ende Oktober 1993 einen Ruck geben und endlich massenhaft einjährige Puts kaufen... ;-)

 

wohl schon den ganzen Tag am Geld (Put-Gewinne) zaehlen..))))))  

Europas Banken stürzen ins nächste Tief

http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/...zen-ins-naechste-tief;2587667

 

ein Angestellter  den Safeschluessel (fuers Briefmarkengeld)
bei der Postbank verlieren sollte...))))) Boerse live  

eines meiner Lieblingsautoren bei der "ZEIT", Uwe Jean Heuser:

Printausgabe vom 20.05.10 -
1) "Albtraum Inflation" (Seite 1)
2) "Mosaik des Wahnsinns" (Seiten 24/25)

Schon allein diese beiden Artikel lohnen den Kauf dieser Ausgabe.  

Das war die gängige Meinung der Amerikaner zum Außenwert des Dollar.

Heute könnte sich die Europäer diesen Spuch nutzen wenn Herr Geithner die Euro Schwäche anspricht.

Das wäre sicherlich alles zu kurz gedacht. Wir brauchen langfristig flexible und stabile Wechselkurse. Eine Veränderung der Wechselkursverhältnisse im zweistelligen Prozentbereich innerhalb kurzer Zeit kann nicht im interesse einer Volkswirtschaft sein.

Gruß

Permanent

 

 

Nix mit Hausse à la 2003 ff. - Baisse à la 2007 ff. im großen A-B-C-Modus!  

Der Rücksetzer im Jan/Feb. erfolgte im Wesentlichen wegen Gewinnmitnahmen. Die Griechenkrise steckte noch in den Anfängen, an eine Ausweitung auf Europa glaubten nur Hardcore-Bären.

Außerdem wird typischerweise die erste größere Korrektur nach einem langen Anstieg von den Bullen "gekauft": Lauernde Mittelfrist-Bullen, denen die Kurse weggerannt waren, wagten nach 10 % Korrektur endlich den Einstieg, und nervöse Bären coverten. In den Hirnen war DOW 14.000 noch voll präsent. Im Endeffekt erreichten die Indizes tatsächlich neue Jahres-Hochs - und wer als Bär am Tief Anfang Februar prozyklisch zu shorten begann, wurde von der Hörnerhorde am Boden zermalmt.

Nun sieht Alles - pro forma - wieder ähnlich aus, und die Bullen (auch bei Ariva) fiebern schon förmlich danach, den jetzigen Bullen-Run zu reiten. Doch da alle daran glauben, wird es vermutlich nicht passieren.

Im Gegensatz zum Feb-Downer, an dessen Boden die Bären-Quote sehr hoch wurde (über 40 % Bären bei unter 30 % Bullen), liegt aktuell noch erstaunlich wenig "Bären-Stimmung" in der Luft (noch über 40 % Bullen). Man sieht es auch bei Ariva, wo überall von Verbilligen und Einstiegschance geredet wird. Die Tendenz in Quo Vadis (auch hier von thostar) ist überwiegend long und auf "Dip-Buying" ausgerichtet. Ich hatte bereits vor kurzem gewarnt, dass nach Bruch der 200-Tage-Linie zuvor bewährte Strategien plötzlich nicht mehr funktionieren können...

Außerdem hat Goldman heute sein Kursziel für den SP-500 auf 1300 angehoben. Das werten manche bullisch [vor allem, wenn sie eh schon long sind ;-]. Es ist aber ähnlich wie 2008, als GS beim Öl-Höchststand von 147 Dollar ein Kursziel für Öl von 200 Dollar genannt hatte. Hörte sich beeindruckend an, war aber utopisch. Wenn die Goldman-Sellsider gratis hohe Kursziele für Aktien nennen, bedeutet dies im Klartext, dass GS selbst shorten will und dafür noch weitere long-gehende Kleinanleger als Kanonfutter einsammeln will. Daher die SPX-1300-Mohrrübe.

Neu am jetzigen Niedergang ist, dass halb Europa brennt und der Euro auf 1,22 gefallen ist - und mit ihm die Rohstoffe und sämtliche Dollar-Carrytrade-Assets. Für die US-Wirtschaft ist 1,22 fundamental schlecht (hemmt US-Exporte). Auf Europa wirken die allerorten beschlossenen Sparmaßnahmen ebenfalls dämpfend. Der jetzige Ausverkauf hat somit fundierte Gründe (nicht nur Gewinnmitnahmen wie im Feb.). Das Euro-Problem lässt sich nicht einfach über Nacht oder mit einer Zinssenkung in Greenspan-Manier "lösen". Es ist strukturell. Die laufenden Streitereien innerhalb der EU erhöhen die Skepsis eher noch.

Je tiefer der Euro fällt, desto tiefer fallen die Rohstoffe und mit diesen die Aktien.

Psychologisch diente der erste Ausverkauf im Jan/Feb. dazu, voreiligen Bären einen Denkzettel zu verpassen. Viele haben sich das auch brav gemerkt - und scheuen nun vor abermaligem (prozyklischem) Shorten zurück. Das Lernziel war: Weil es Februar nicht richtig runterging, kann/wird/sollte es auch jetzt nicht richtig runtergehen...

Und schon allein deshalb WIRD es gerade jetzt passieren ;-)

Wenn wenig Bären im Markt sind (wie aktuell trotz der starken Rückgänge), bedeutet dies, dass die Goldmänner beim weiteren Shorten nicht durch covernde Bären gestört werden. Sie können daher auf der Shortseite "fett draufhalten". Das tun sie offenbar, wie schon bei den Anstiegen seit März, vorzugsweise nachts - im dünnen asiatischen Futures-Handel. Dort verlor der SPX heute nacht über 30 Punkte...

FAZIT: Die letzte Erholung im Februar war "nur für Dich bestimmt" und hatte das Lernziel, dass Du bei diesem zweiten (vermutlich nachhaltigen) Niedergang wegen zu großer Zweifel nur begrenzt teilhaben wirst. Die Vorsicht wurde Dir von den (GS-)Dipbuyern bewusst eingebläut. Denn was Du auf der Shortseite nicht mitnimmst, kann GS für sich allein einsacken.

Man lese dazu Franz Kafkas Parabel "Vor dem Gesetz": Ein Mann vom Land will Zugang zum Gesetz, doch ein mächtiger Türsteher verwehrt ihm den Eingang. Der Mann wartet sein Leben lang auf Einlass, wird blind und fast taub. Als er im Sterben liegt, schreit ihm der Torhüter zu: "Dieser Eingang war nur für dich bestimmt. Ich gehe jetzt und schließe ihn."

http://www.adventure-treff.de/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14272  

... könnte ich fast in den Sarkasmus-Mode verfallen "Sage mir irgendeinen Quatsch, und ich nenne dir einen, der ihn wohlgelehrt begründen wird..." ;-)

"Quatsch" steht dabei einfach nur als Platzhalter. Kann sich hinterher als wahr herausstellen, als falsch, als halbfalsch, als hirnverbrannt, als genialisch, oder auch als jede beliebige logisch oder unlogisch mögliche Kombination... Einfach egal...

Mal positiv interpretiert: Dieser mein Blickwinkel deutet vermutlich an, dass ich eine gewisse psychische Minimalreife erreicht habe, die mich nicht mehr so übermässig verführbar durch Eigen-Suggestionen (und diejenigen von anderen) sein lässt, wie ich es mal war ("ich denke mir was tolles aus und erwarte, dass sich die gesamte Welt rucki-zucki meiner genialen Analyse anschliesst und sie unverzüglich in der Wirklichkeit ablaufen lässt"). Und insofern...

"FAZIT: Die letzte Erholung im Februar war 'nur für Dich bestimmt' und hatte das Lernziel, dass Du bei diesem zweiten (vermutlich nachhaltigen) Niedergang wegen zu großer Zweifel nur begrenzt teilhaben wirst. Die Vorsicht wurde Dir von den (GS-)Dipbuyern bewusst eingebläut. Denn was Du auf der Shortseite nicht mitnimmst, kann GS für sich allein einsacken"

... sieht es so aus, als wenn ich auch in Zukunft eine nachhaltige Chance behalten werde, ein angemessenes Scherflein aus den Märkten zu kriegen. Wobei ich zugegebenermassen bescheidenerweise nur einen Bruchteil eines Promillchens dessen mitnehmen werde, was sich eine GS einsackt... ;-)

Aber wie habe ich schon früh gelernt? Quod liced Jovi non licet bovi... ;-)

 

 

http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10764856.html

Kass: Updating My 2010 Surprises
Doug Kass
05/24/10 - 02:00 PM EDT


    "To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence."

    -- Friedrich Nietzsche

We are now almost five months through 2010, and those past five months, similar to the 12 months prior that preceded them, have been one of the most tumultuous periods in financial history. Recently, the pleasure in place for the first four months of the year has been supplanted by pain and uncertainty.

What does the balance of 2010 hold? How do we profit? For some possible answers, it's time to grade and update my 2010 surprise list.

    "I'm astounded by people who want to 'know' the universe when it's hard enough to find your way around Chinatown."

    -- Woody Allen

For those new to TheStreet, a little background.

In late December over the past seven years, I have taken a page from former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wien, who is now Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services, and prepared a list of possible surprises for the coming year. (Byron had a very successful 2009 surprise list. Here is his 2010 surprise list.)

My surprise list is not intended to consist of predictions but rather events that have a reasonable chance of occurring despite the general perception that the odds are very long. I call these "possible improbable" events.

The real purpose of this endeavor is to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in accordance with outlier events, with the potential for large payoffs, and to disprove Nietzsche, who said that we live the same life over and over again. Wall Street research is still very much conventional, almost universally bullish and consisting of nonvariant "groupthink" despite the attempts of reform over the past several years. Mainstream and consensus expectations are just that, and, in most cases, they are deeply embedded into today's stock prices. If I succeed in at least making you think about outlier events, then the exercise has been worthwhile.

Too often we are played as suckers as we just accept the trend, momentum and/or the superficial as certain truth without a shred of criticism. As a society (and as investors), we are consistently bamboozled by appearance and consensus. Just look at those who bought into the success of Enron, the financial supermarket concept at Citigroup (C), the uninterrupted profit growth at Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), housing's new paradigm of noncyclical growth and ever-rising home prices in the early to mid 2000s, Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, the heroic home-run production of steroid-laced Major League Baseball players Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire, the uncompromising principles of New York Governor Elliott Spitzer, the morality of our politicians (e.g., John Edwards, John Ensign and Larry Craig), the consistency of Bernie Madoff's investment returns (and those of other hucksters) and the clean-cut image of Tiger Woods.

Last year's surprise list proved how wrong "groupstink" and conventional wisdom can be. And while I failed to surpass my most successful year of surprises in 2008, during which 60% of the year's "possible improbables" were on target, I still had a very successful surprise list in 2009, with approximately half of our predicted surprises actually coming to pass. In fact, over the past three years (since and including 2007), at least 50% of our surprises proved accurate, which is up from one-third in 2006 and from 20% in 2005. Nearly one-half of 2004's prognostications proved prescient, and about one-third came to pass in the first year of our surprises for 2003.

In summary, investing based on some of my outlier events (particularly) in 2008, 2009 and 2010 would have resulted in high-return investment yields from several improbable and/or long-shot scenarios, would have protected investors somewhat from the market's downdraft (then prompted them to participate in the market's historic recovery from the generational low) and would have provided some healthy skepticism (helpful in navigating over the last half of 2008 and into early 2009 as well as the past month).

But that was yesterday, and we now face the present with a more-than-usual amount of uncertainty.

While it is still early in the year, the six most important surprises for 2010 (better corporate profits and economic growth, a disappointing housing recovery, worse stock market performance, a stronger U.S. dollar and lower interest rates) have been on target, though, in the aggregate, the number of accurate surprises are down from previous years. That said, as we approach this year's halftime intermission, here are my grades and updates for my surprises for 2010.

   1. There is a glaring upside to first-quarter 2010 corporate profits (up 100% year over year) and first-quarter 2010 GDP (up 4.5%). It grows clear that, owing to continued draconian cost cuts, coupled with a series of positive economic releases and a long list of company profit guidance increases in mid to late January and early February, there is a very large upside to first-quarter GDP (up 4.5%) and, even more important, to S&P 500 profit growth (which doubles!). The upside on both counts is in sharp contrast to more muted growth expectations. While corporate managers, economists and strategists raise earnings per share, full-year growth and S&P target estimates, surprisingly, the U.S. equity market fails to respond positively to the much better growth dynamic, and the S&P 500 remains tightly range-bound (between 1,050 and 1,150) into spring 2010.

      Grade A-. Last year our No. 1 surprise -- namely, that the Russian mafia was laundering money with Madoff -- was accurate. This year's No. 1 surprise -- far better-than-expected corporate profits, far worse-than-expected performance of the S&P 500 -- has also proven accurate as second-half 2010 worldwide economic growth expectations are being questioned coincident with the eurozone crisis.

   2. Housing and jobs fail to revive. An outsized first-quarter 2010 GDP (up 4.5.%) print is achieved despite a still moribund housing market and without any meaningful improvement in the labor market (excluding the increase in census workers) as corporations continue to cut costs and show little commitment to adding permanent employees.

      Grade A-. The domestic economy has advanced despite housing's drag. Even with record affordability and low interest rates, the residential real estate market remains mired by reduced availability of mortgage credit, the persistent drop in wages and benefits, the specter of shadow housing inventory and an uncertain (though improving) jobs picture. While home prices have stabilized, sales activity and turnover of existing stock have been disappointing relative to expectations, especially in the face of an extension in the home tax credit.

   3. The U.S. dollar explodes higher. After dropping by over 40% from 2001 to 2008, the U.S. dollar continued to spiral lower in the last nine months of 2009. Our currency's recent strength will persist, however, surprising most market participants by continuing to rally into first quarter 2010. In fact, the U.S. dollar will be the strongest major world currency during the first three or four months of the new year.

      Grade A. The rise in the value of the U.S. dollar has been breathtaking of late.

   4. The price of gold topples. Gold's price plummets to $900 an ounce by the beginning of second quarter 2010. Unhedged, publicly held gold companies report large losses, and the gold sector lies at the bottom of all major sector performers. Hedge fund manager John Paulson abandons his plan to bring a new dedicated gold hedge fund to market.

      Grade F. Way off, I couldn't have been more inaccurate!

   5. Central banks tighten earlier than expected. China, facing reported inflation approaching 5%, tightens monetary and fiscal policy in March, a month ahead of a Fed tightening of 50 basis points, which, with the benefit of hindsight, is a policy mistake.

      Grade D. The crisis in the eurozone -- still weak unemployment, etc.-- has deferred a domestic rate rise until 2011 at the earliest.

   6. A Middle East peace is upended due to an attack by Israel on Iran. Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities before midyear. An already comatose U.S. consumer falls back on its heels, retail spending plummets, and the personal savings rate approaches 10%. The first-quarter spike in domestic growth is short-lived as GDP abruptly stalls.

      Grade Incomplete.

   7. Stocks drop by 10% in the first half of next year. In the face of renewed geopolitical tensions and reduced worldwide growth expectations, stocks drop as the threat of an economic double-dip grows. Surprisingly, though, the drop in the major indices is contained, and the U.S. stock market retreats by less than 10% from year-end 2009 levels.

      Grade A-. This surprise (arguably the market's direction is the most important surprise on my list) has been accurate. Fears of a double-dip now abound, and stock prices have sunk year-to-date despite strong corporate profit growth and the optimism of Wall Street strategists and investment managers.

   8. Goldman Sachs goes private. Goldman Sachs (GS) stock drops back to $125 to $130 a share, within $15 of the warrant exercise price that Warren Buffett received in Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) / (BRK.B) late 2008 investment in Goldman Sachs. Sick of the unrelenting compensation outcry, government jawboning and associated populist pressures, Warren Buffett teams up with Goldman Sachs to take the investment firm private. The deal is completed by year-end.

      Grade F. While seven months remain in the year, this surprise is not likely in the face of the SEC's suit against Goldman Sachs!

   9. Second-half 2010 GDP growth turns flat. The Goldman Sachs transaction stabilizes the markets, which are stunned by an extended Mideast conflict that continues throughout the summer and into the early fall. While a diplomatic initiative led by the U.S. serves to calm Mideast tensions, flat second-half U.S. GDP growth and a still high 9.5% to 10.0% unemployment rate caps the U.S. stock market's upside and leads to a very dull second half, during which share prices have virtually flatlined (with surprisingly limited rallies and corrections throughout the entire six-month period). For the full year, the S&P 500 exhibits a 10% decline vs. the general consensus of leading strategists for about a 10% rise in the major indices.

      Grade C/Incomplete. While the rate of growth in the U.S. economy should decelerate from about 3% in second quarter 2010 to 1.5% to 2% in the second half of the year, I will be wrong on a surprise of flat growth over the past six months of the year. The decline in commodity prices and lower interest rates will help the consumer and profit margins at many manufacturing companies. As to a full-year 10% decline in the S&P 500, stay tuned.

  10. Rate-sensitive stocks outperform; metals underperform. Utilities are the best performing sector in the U.S. stock market in 2010; gold stocks are the worst performing group, with consumer discretionary coming in as a close second.

      Grade C/Incomplete. Relatively correct on utilities and wrong on consumer discretionary and gold stocks thus far.

  11. Treasury yields fall. The yield of the 10-year U.S. note drops from 4% at the end of the first quarter to under 3% by the summer and ends the year at approximately the same level (3%). Despite the current consensus that higher inflation and interest rates will weigh on the fixed-income markets, bonds surprisingly outperform stocks in 2010. A plethora of specialized domestic and non-U.S. fixed-income exchange-traded funds are introduced throughout the year, setting the stage for a vast speculative top in bond prices, but that is a late 2011 issue.

      Grade A. Despite consensus expectations that interest rates would rise at the beginning of 2010, the yield on the 10-year U.S. note now stands at only 3.30%. With unit labor costs still declining, austerity measures instituted over here (local and state) and over there (Europe), the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, 2011 tax rate increases on the docket and a flight to quality, deflationary pressures have mounted, and there appears to be no upward pressure on interest rates at the current time.

  12. Warren Buffett steps down. Warren Buffett announces that he is handing over the investment reins to a Berkshire outsider and that he plans to also announce his in-house successor as chief operating officer by Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in 2011.

      Grade Incomplete. Though unlikely this year.

  13. Insider trading charges expand. The SEC alleges, in a broad-ranging sting, the existence of extensive exchange of information that goes well beyond Galleon's Silicon Valley executive connections. Several well-known long-only mutual funds are implicated in the sting, which reveals that they have consistently received privileged information from some of the largest public companies over the past decade.

      Grade Incomplete. Nothing yet.

  14. The SEC launches an assault on mutual fund expenses. The SEC restricts 12b-1 mutual fund fees. In response to the proposal, asset management stocks crater.

      Grade Incomplete. Nothing yet.

  15. The SEC restricts short-selling. The SEC announces major short-selling bans after stocks sag in the second quarter.

      Grade B. Short-selling bans have recently been introduced in Europe, and I still wouldn't be surprised if this occurs here in the second half of 2010.

  16. More hedge fund tumult emerges. Two of the most successful hedge fund managers extant announce their retirement and fund closures. One exits based on performance problems, the other based on legal problems.

      Grade Incomplete. Nothing yet.

  17. Pandit is out and Cohen is in at Citigroup. Citigroup's Vikram Pandit is replaced by former Shearson Lehman Brothers Chairman Peter Cohen. Cohen replaces a number of senior Citigroup executives with Ramius Partners colleagues. Sandy Weill rejoins Citigroup as a senior consultant.

      Grade F. But this one was tongue in cheek.

  18. A weakened Republican party is in disarray. Sarah Palin announces that she has separated from her husband, leaving the Republican party firmly in the hands of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. An improving economy in early 2010 elevates President Obama's popularity back to pre-inauguration levels, and, despite the market's second-quarter decline, the country comes together after the Middle East conflict, producing a tidal wave of populism that moves ever more dramatically in legislation and spirit. With the Democratic tsunami (part deux) revived, the party wins November midterm elections by a landslide.

      Grade F. No chance! The Republican party, despite the setback for the Tea Party after Dr. Rand Paul's gaffe, stands to win back a number of seats in November; the only question is how many seats they will regain.

  19. Tiger Woods makes a comeback. Tiger Woods and his wife reconcile in early 2010, and he returns earlier than expected to the PGA Tour. After announcing that his wife is pregnant with their third child, both the PGA Tour's and Tiger Woods' popularity rise to record levels, and the golfer signs a series of new commercial contracts that insure him a record $150 million of endorsement income in 2011.

      Grade F. Triple bogey!!

  20. The New York Yankees are sold to a Jack Welch-led investor group. The Steinbrenner family decides, for estate purposes, to sell the New York Yankees to a group headed by former General Electric (GE) Chairman Jack Welch.

      Grade Incomplete. Though Jack Welch may finally be fed up with the Boston Red Sox baseball team, I will likely strike out on this one!

 

zuviel Psychologie?

Dann nimm die jetzige Europa-Krise als Hardcore-"Real Life Event" hinzu.

Oder ist die etwa auch "nur Psychologie"?

Außerdem: Ist die Börse, zumindest kurzfristig, nicht sowieso nur Psychologie? Erst rennen Haufen von Idioten der DOW-14.000 Möhre hinterher und kaufen gnadenlos jeden Rücksetzer. Dann fällt es, sie haben die Hosen voll und verkaufen nun ebenso gnadenlos jede Erholung.

Normal ist das nicht.

Eher ein Fall für die Abteilung "Pychopathologische Geldanlage".  

Den Vorteil, hier wenig zu posten und auch nur sporadisch mit zu lesen, habe ich ausgenutzt.
Man gewinnt nämlich Abstand vom Geschehen.

Es erlaubt einem auch, das tagtägliche Treiben an den Börsen und Weltmärkten extern zu betrachten und gegebenenfalls sich danach zu positionieren. So habe ich den EUR/USD seit Ende März 2010 zweimal geritten. (Habe ihn von 1,45 bis 1,40 und von 1,35 bis 1,30 mitgenommen.) Aber ungehebelt, d.h. cash, also 1/1.
Wie ihr seht, habe ich damit Geld verdient. Aber sehr konservativ. Und bin eigentlich immer zu früh rausgegangen.
Ist aber nicht schlimm. Wenn ich gierig werde, geht es meistens schief.
Bin letzte Woche dann noch mal bei 1,23 rein. Am Freitag habe ich dann aufgehorcht, als die Indizes am Vortag und über Nacht den Bach runter gingen. Wie hier bereits bemerkt, war es ja zum 2. Mal innerhalb kürzester Zeit.
Ich hab mir dann mal die Charts angesehen, wawidus "Bildchen" voller Anmut angeguckt ;-), auf das Politikergequacke weltweit geachtet, die europapolitische Kakophonie wahrgenommen, ein bisschen hier im Thread, aber auch bei den Antizyklikern mitgelesen und dann eine Entscheidung getroffen.
Am Freitag nachmittag besorgte ich mir SDS ( den hier:   http://proshares.com/funds/sds.html  ).
Wie ihr bemerkt, hat das Timing wieder nicht ganz gestimmt: am Freitag Abend oder gestern morgen wäre ich da um Einiges billiger reingekommen. Ist aber nicht schlimm.
Die generelle Tendenz für meinen Ultrashort scheint ja zu stimmen.

Nun wird sich nur die Frage stellen (falls die Tendenz weiterhin stimmt), wo ich wieder raus muss. Wann schmeisse ich den Schein?

Prinzipiell habe ich auch die Erfahrung gemacht, dass ich ungehebelt mehr Geld verdiene. Dennoch habe ich eine vorsichtige Posi Gehebeltes (SDS) gekauft. Das zwingt mich dazu, näher am Geschehen dran zu bleiben.

Aber das bereitet einem hier im Thread ja Vergnügen.


Schönen Gruss aus dem sonnigen Luxemburg


Casaubon

we missed you in the past......  

Home prices fell in March from the previous month, signaling that temporary tax credits for buyers weren't enough to buoy the housing market. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday posted a 0.5 percent drop from February. Prices in 13 of the 20 cities tracked by the index fell month over month. Only six metro areas recorded price gains. One, Boston, came in flat. The figures point to a weakening housing market despite historically low mortgage rates and now-expired tax credits. Nationally, prices have climbed nearly 3 percent from their April 2009 bottom. But they remain nearly 31 percent below their July 2006 peak. In the first quarter of 2010, U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent compared with the fourth quarter. However, index was unchanged in March from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, better than the 0.3 percent decline forecast in a Reuters survey.For the first three months of the year, the national home price index fell 3.2 percent, unadjusted, compared with a 1 percent drop in the fourth quarter. The index was up 2 percent, however, from the same quarter a year ago.The 20-city index posted a 2.3 percent annual increase in March, near the 2.4 percent forecast.Despite improvement on a year-over-year basis, David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P, said the March monthly report was not encouraging. "It is especially disappointing that the improvement we saw in sales and starts in March did not find its way to home prices," he said in a statement. "Now that the tax incentive ended on April 30, we don't expect to see a boost in relative demand."Buyers had to sign contracts by April 30 to get federal tax credits of up to $8,000.—Reuters contributed to this report._____________________________________

 

The cost of protecting U.S. corporate debt with credit default swaps rose Tuesday after global equities sold off on worries over the impact of a sovereign debt crisis on Europe's banking sector.

 

The main index of investment-grade credit default swaps rose over 6 percent to 131.4 basis points basis points from 123.5 basis points at Monday's close, according to Markit Intraday.

The U.S. credit default swap index has widened by nearly 43 basis points this month as concerns over Europe's debt troubles erodes risk appetite.

Concerns mounted on Tuesday, sending Japan's Nikkei down 3.1 percent and European shares down 3 percent after a local Spanish bank had to be rescued over the weekend.

 

In den USA gehen jedes Wochenende (!) Banken über die Wupper.

Nun mußte mal eine kleine Sparkasse gerettet werden - und schon sinkt die Sonne !!???!!  

U.S. consumer confidence rose for the third straight month in May to the highest in more than two years as concerns about the labor market continued to ease, according to a private sector report released Tuesday.

 

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 63.3 in May, the best level since March 2008, from a downwardly revised 57.7 in April.

The median of forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters was for a reading of 59.0 for May.

May's results showed Americans were little affected by the sharp sell-off in U.S. stock markets early in the month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on May 6 briefly fell nearly 1,000 points—its biggest intraday point drop ever. The cutoff date for the Conference Board's May survey was May 18.

 

The expectations index rose to 85.3 in May from 77.4, the best level since August 2007. The present situation index increased to 30.2 from 28.2, the highest since December 2008.

Consumers' labor market assessment continued to improve.

The "jobs hard to get" index fell to 43.6 from 44.8, while the "jobs plentiful" index was little changed at 4.6 percent.

 

 

Meint Bubblevisions Vorzeige-Bär Paul Farrell

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/...ad-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25

(Im Link ist auch ein Interview mit Niall Ferguson)
 

Auszug:

As you stare from high up in the nose-bleed bleachers watching the game, staring at a Dow that not long ago was above 11,000 and heading for 12,000. Now the Dow's sitting on the bench, ready for the showers, weak after a couple air balls around 10,000. No more timeouts. "This game's in the refrigerator."

... Will the Dow drop below 9,000 again? Now that it's broken technical supports, will it drop below 6,470, where the last bull rally started in early 2009? Can you handle the nerve-racking volatility generated by Wall Street's high-frequency traders playing the game at warp-speed with algorithms making thousands of micro-bets in milliseconds, betting billions daily?

 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/...nd-won-reports-2010-05-25-1031570

...derweil Nord-Korea auf die an der scharf bewachten Grenze plärrenden südkoreanischen Propaganda-Lautsprecher schießt und Truppen in Kampfbereitschaft setzt:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,696489,00.html  

;-))
Warning: Crash dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now.

[…] Given their miserable track record (Main Street lost 20% last decade), only a fool would bet with Wall Street. Betting odds are Wall Street will lose another 20% in the next decade from 2010-2020. Yes, today's market is a "buying opportunity," but only for Wall Street casino insiders like Biggs, Blankfein and even low-level staffers inside "The Casino." But not for our 95 million Main Street investors, there's more pain ahead, this market's dropping.

Correction? New crash imminent, worse than 2008

More proof: Earlier economist Gary Shilling said price-to-earnings ratios are at a "nosebleed 22.5 level." The Dow was around 11,000. Money manager Jeremy Grantham recently said the market's overvalued 40%. That could mean a collapse to 6,600. Last week in Reuters' "Markets Could Be Derailed Again," George Soros echoed a "game over" warning with a "stark warning ... that the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis."

Now Dow Theory's Richard Russell is warning the public of an imminent crash: "Sell ... get liquid ... by the end of this year they won't recognize the country."

A bigger meltdown than the credit crisis? Yes, Bush's team drove America into a ditch. But now Obama and his money men, Summers, Geithner, Bernanke, are digging the hole deeper. Soros says we have not learned "the lessons that markets are inherently unstable." As a result, "the success in bailing out the system on the previous occasion led to a super-bubble." Now "we are facing a yet larger bubble." Worse than 2008?
Yes, the game may be "in the refrigerator," the lights will go out, but as Soros hints, the electricity may get turned off too. Get it? This may not be a correction. Not even a bear. What's coming could be worse than the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 meltdown combined, a "Super-Bubble" says Soros. And the biggest reason, Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm tell Newsweek, is that "the president's half-measures won't fix our failed financial system" because he refuses to "bust up the too-big-to-fail banks."

Yes, Congress will pass something. But unfortunately, as reported on MSNBC, Senator Dodd, the reform bill's sponsor, is a turncoat, working overtime with Wall Street lobbyists "to weaken financial reform," leave us vulnerable to a new, bigger crash in the near future. And Wall Street lobbyists are spending hundreds of millions to kill reform.

'White Swans:' 2000 and 2008 crashes were predictable, next one too

Recently Roubini was interviewed by Charlie Rose in BusinessWeek. His message confirms the worst. Roubini was questioned about his new book, "Crisis Economics." Rose began by asking, "what have we learned from these crises of capitalism?" Roubini could easily have said, "nothing, we learned nothing." His actual reply:
"The first lesson is that crises are not 'black swan' events ... they're not just random outcomes. They are the result of a buildup of financial and policy vulnerability and mistakes -- excessive risk-taking, leverage, debt, and so on." They are 'White Swans' "because these events are predictable. But generation after generation, we seem to forget the past. When there's a bubble, there's euphoria. There's irrational exuberance. Consumers can use their homes like ATM machines. Governments and policy makers are happy because they get reelected. Wall Street makes billions of dollars of profits. Everybody's delusional."

Sound familiar? Yes indeed, in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff pinpoint the key signal that will blow the whistle and call the game: The "90% ratio of government debt to GDP is a tipping point in economic growth." For 800 years "you increase it over and beyond a high threshold, and boom!"

Warning, fans, the numbers on the game-clock are flashing wildly. America's ratio is now 92%, thanks to Obama's $1.7 trillion budget, future deficits, exploding debt. Soon, Ka-Booom! Another great nation bites the dust. Depression follows. Goodbye retirement.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/...0148-4713-9A9B-A31F7D439D41

kaum vergleichbar ist.

O.K., in Spanien ist die akkumulierte Staatsverschuldung wesentlich niedriger als in den USA und die Neuverschuldung ist auch noch geringer. Die Privatverschuldung ist in Spanien hoch, nicht so hoch wie in den USA aber mit einem dicken Fehler: Die Spanier müssen ihre Schulden zurück zahlen und die Amerikaner geben den Hausschlüssel ab und machen Urlaub am sonnigen Strand von Louisiana. Und das Wichtigste sollte man nicht vergessen. Geithner wies gestern wieder darauf hin: Die USA werden ihr AAA-Rating nie verlieren! Ist ja logisch. Würde sich eine Agentur trauen, säße die Führung sofort im Gefängnis. Das Kerbholz ist groß genug. Und dann dieses wahnsinnige Wachstum in den USA. Um da mithalten zu können müssten die Spanier erst mal ihre Statistikregelwerke umstellen. Dazu sind sie unfähig. Sie reichen diesbezüglich nicht an die Kreativität der USA heran.

Also hören wir doch mit dieses unsinnigen Vergleichen auf und loben unsere göttliche Führung von jenseits des großen Teiches: Obama lebe hoch!