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  baggo-mh

 

I have expected to land and the lower end of the original guidance as the management has already warned. however, the ad-hoc surprised me and am a bit disappointed as I was just about to buy a second big position somewhere below 18 eur.
I am also positively surprised about the fast rebound of the OI. Having in mind the slow-down in EV I have expected a bounce up not before start of next year. It seems that we end up with a short lasting weekness in the OI. however, this makes think that the ongoing ramp-up of the manufacturers  in power electr. could inevitable lead to an oversupply in the next few years, if EV remains low.
Also, the dominant position of power el. in the OI reduces the diversification which is not good. It looks like optoel. is to slow down.

As to the stock price: nice rebound today. Nonetheless, I am not sure we will see prices 30+ in the next couple of months but who knows. Hopefully, the region around 20 will now become a solid base.  

New York-based Corning now expects core sales to be about $3.6 billion for the second quarter, compared with its previous forecast of about $3.4 billion. Analysts expect core sales of $3.41 billion, according to LSEG data.

A surge in demand for large-scale data centers to support growing adoption of generative AI has spurred investments in optical connectivity products provided by companies such as Corning.

All Corning's fiber optics in data centers need laser sources like VCSEL and edge emitting lasers which are > 90% made from Aixtron's G4 and G10-AsP.

Corning is up 12.4% today.
 

There are indications that Aixtron's new G10-SiC Chinese customer is Sanan at Hunan and Chongqing.

Previously I posted that Hunan Sanan has a JV with STMicro at Chongqing on SiC, and a SiC EPI equipment job opening by an undisclosed company in Chongqing seeking engineers with G5 experience.

Hunan Sanan's website shows only SiC products:
https://www.sanan-semiconductor.com/en

The below is a current SiC job opening at Hunan Sanan also seeking engineers with Aixtron experience.  

Epitaxial Equipment Engineer
Changsha-Yuelu District

Recruitment of deputy manager · Hunan Sanan Semiconductor Co., Ltd.

Job Responsibilities: 1. Develop equipment maintenance plans, participate in periodic equipment maintenance and handle equipment anomalies; 2. Develop various equipment operation manuals and management specifications, and improve existing operation manuals and specification documents; 3. Make relevant technical modifications to equipment for aging equipment hardware or process changes; 4. Perform installation and removal of new and relocated equipment, as well as equipment Move and other related matters; 5. Perform safety inspections and rectifications in relevant areas; 6. Assist in establishing a personnel training system, and regularly organize personnel training and skill assessments; 7. Provide timely feedback to the equipment supervisor on the equipment operation status and provide regular weekly reports; 8. Cooperate with the equipment supervisor to complete the equipment planning indicators; 9. Be responsible for the management of machine spare parts and put forward procurement needs in a timely manner. Qualifications: 1. Bachelor degree or above, majoring in machinery, electromechanical or automation, 2. More than three years of relevant work experience in semiconductor equipment, with experience in MOCVD/AXtron equipment.

 

Epitaxial Equipment Engineer

Chongqing-Shapingba District

verified Recruitment Manager · STMicroelectronics

Job Responsibilities: 1. Develop equipment maintenance plans, participate in periodic equipment maintenance and handle equipment anomalies; 2. Develop various equipment operation manuals and management specifications, and improve existing operation manuals and specification documents...

Qualifications: 1. Bachelor degree or above, majoring in machinery, electromechanical or automation, 2. 2-5 years of relevant work experience in semiconductor equipment, with experience in MOCVD/AXtron equipment.

Company Profile
STMicroelectronics Co., Ltd. was established in August 2023 and is located on Binhe South Road, Xiyong Microelectronics Park, Chongqing Hi-Tech Zone. With a registered capital of US$612 million, it was jointly funded by Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. (51%) and STMicroelectronics (China) Investment Co., Ltd. (49%). It is a car-grade power chip m

 

Aixtron hat ja im SiC Bereich 3 der Top 5 Kunden. Neben Wolfspeed ist dies lt. Jefferies nun auch Infineon.

Was denkst du wer der dritte Top 5 Kunde ist, ich denke, dass vieles für ST Micro spricht. Dann müsste jeoch der Consens für 2026 deutlich höher sein mit dem neuen Werk in Italien.

Danke und Grüße  

Hi Purdie,
Ich denke es ist ziemlich klar, dass Wolfspeed der lead customer (schon auf dem alten SIC Tool) war, gefolgt von OnSemi und jetzt Infineon.
STM befindet sich mE nach schon sehr lange in der evaluierungsphase und hier würde ich auf ein Dual sourcing tippen mit Aixtron und LPE (ASMi), die Frage ist dann wer welchen Anteil vom Kuchen erhält.

Viele Grüße,
Fel  

ja OnSemi hatte ich auch auf dem Schirm.

Dann wäre es wohl gut möglich, dass ST Micro bei der Umstellung auf die 200er Wafer in Q3 2025 und mit dem neuen Werk in Italien auf Aixtron wechselt. Ich glaube schon, dass Aixtron die besten SiC Anlagen baut.

Grüße

 

STM's new plant in Italy is 8" only and it might use the G10-SiC.  We just have to wait and see.

The Sanan-STM joint venture in Chongqing  is 8" only and will use the Aixtron tools, IMO.

The Sanan plant in Hunan was 6" only and is switching G10-SiC for the 8".

I have posted before that based on the TrednForce research that China's SiC epi equipment market was $181M in 2023 and Aixtron had only 5.1% market share, or $9m.  The vast majority of that market was on the 6".  

The projected 2024 SiC epi equipment market size is $289m.  From 2024 on, that market will be transitioning to 8".  Aixtron's win at Sanan and Sanan-STM JV is a good start.  

Regards,
CWL

 

 

 

appreciated you share this information.
I have thought that PLE has a much bigger share of chinese market and would have not thought that the market is much distributed (that many suppliers).
For the conclusion is: there is much to gain for Aix in terms of market share in a growth market.
However, the question is whether they will succeed.  I hear they are very confident of the tool performance on 8". If that is true indeed and the tool is superior to the competition, then these would be very bright prospects.
i am cautiously optimistic but don't have the visibility and knowledge to really make an educated guess about the development. I remember the management claiming a very good performance but what can we expect from the management to say? ;)  

would be surprising if the chinese don't choose Aixtron but they might have in mind that Aixtron may recieve a "dont sell to china anymore" note from the US/EU. They might compare chinese based companies and their costs and decide if thats better than having a risk to get cut off Aixtron machines.  

ehemals IR für Paion AG

....

wie denkt ihr über diese Personalie ?


 

... die Chinesen werden den Ausgang der Verhandlungen über die  Zölle der importierten E-Autos abwarten.  

Langt  die EU hier heftig zu ( wir in D sind ja nicht so dafür) ... Ja dann wird es für den
deutschen Mittelstand unschön.

 

From the Chinese press:

In May this year (2024), Sanan Semiconductor officially revealed that its chairman Lin Zhidong was recently invited to attend the sixth meeting of the China-France Entrepreneurs Committee.

During the meeting, Lin Zhidong introduced the latest progress of Hunan Sanan SiC project - the first phase of Hunan silicon carbide semiconductor industrialization project has been fully put into production, and the annual production capacity of SiC has reached 250,000 pieces (equivalent to 6 inches); the second phase of the project is progressing steadily, and will fully introduce the world's leading 8-inch production equipment and processes, and is scheduled to be put into production in the third quarter of this year . After the entire project reaches full production, it will achieve a total annual production capacity of 480,000 pieces.

--------------------------------

I have posted earlier that Hunan Sanan is seeking engineers with Aixtron experience.  It is logical to assume that Aixtron's G10-SiC is in play.

For 480,000 annual capacity, that would be about 50 G10-SiC.  However, Hunan Sanann might dual source to LPE which is also qualified as a "World's leading 8-inch production equipment".  I don't think any Chinese SiC equipments are qualified as "World leading".


 

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...or-wafer-production-2024-07-17/  

From a Taiwanese news (edited):

Xu Xiulan (Doris Hsu), chairman of the silicon wafer manufacturer GlobalWafers ( 6488-TW ), said today (17th) that the company has entered the third-generation semiconductor supply chain in the United States, providing customers with 6-inch and 8-inch products, and has passed the certification of first-tier manufacturers. Currently, In the United States, the Epi manufacturing plant is the main one in Texas, and because Texas has advantages in electricity and land costs, it is not ruled out that the SiC  Wafer crystal growth process will be extended to Texas in the future.

Xu Xiulan said that GlobalWafers has a layout for silicon carbide and gallium nitride. Among them, silicon carbide is currently used as wafer in Taiwan, and Epi is produced in Texas, including 6 inches and 8 inches. It has been in production for two years and has also won first-tier awards in the United States and Europe. Certification from a major manufacturer, so if customers buy the company's silicon carbide Epi, the company will ship from the United States, and it is also expected to increase its epitaxial wafer production capacity.
----------------------
Note that Globitech is part of GlobalWafers in Sheramn Tx.

https://www.aixtron.com/en/investors/...0the%2520SiC%2520market_n2728

 

Hi all,

I thought this news by OnSemi, a large Aixtron customer in SIC as we know, published this interesting news yesterday. I am surprised that this has not been picked up in a bigger way yet, but I think this is important as SIC growth is determined by 2 factors: a) a growing EV market overall and b) a broadening out of SIC chips across the entire car spectrum. While a) seems to be struggeling at the moment (in particular in EU/US), this in my view is a clear sign that b) is happening.
From my understanding SIC has so far mainly been used in Tesla and some more high end car models (Porsche Taycan?). As it broadens to a much bigger (in terms of volume) mass market, this should drive production capacity in the western world (outside China) to produce these chips.. thus Aixtron.

https://investor.onsemi.com/news-releases/...next-generation-electric

Regrds,
Fel  

Aixtron main competitor ASMi (within which LPE sits) reported Q2 results today with group orders +56% yoy organically driven largely by non SIC business, but still for SIC they call out

"Power/analog/wafer bookings were at a decent level despite generally slow market demand" and
"SiC Epi bookings were also at a relative strong level in Q2 2024"

https://www.asm.com/media/sfzdrkvi/2024_q2_investor-presentation.pdf

Very similar to the solid order intake Aixtron already pre-released in its profit warning.

Lets see what Aixtron reports in qualitative matters during the call on Thursday. I think the numbers itself will be a non-event, except for maybe more color on working capital plans and targets until year-end.

Regards,
Fel
 

In the ASMI CC, they talked about new 200mm SiC epi wins in China and outside of China with its newly released cluster tool. I wonder if Felix could address that.

Would having a manufacturing site in Italy make export license easier?

On the stock buyback, I hope questions be asked.

I am projecting Q3 sales of 177m.



 

does that mean Aixtron is losing Marketshare?  

I suppose most of you already heard it or read it but still here is a transcript of the CC
https://seekingalpha.com/article/...-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript

I had the time for this only now.

I am not going to comment much on it since everything is in there.
Only one thought:
I am a bit sceptic about the new facility in Italy regarding the profitability. They say they expected very little impact. I. however, cannot imagine very little impact in running costs from a facility that doubles the existing manuf. capaciteis. How can that be?
The primary reason to buy it is to be able to handle peaks in the orders in short terms. I don't understand investing the money, be it also "not that much" and taking the running costs in wait for orders peaks. Then these orders should be in such a volume that the invest will pay off.
I am sure the management must have thought it over but I see this as a wild card and won't be too surprised if they will have to sell it in let's couple of years. In case these peaks do not materialize.
 

as far as i have understood the customers asked for it so i guess Aixtron had some talks with them as they wont run a site without knowing the outcome.

i hope they learned from Osram  

I always appreciate the insights and bluntness by OnSemi management team. Interesting comments on EVs, SIC and China. I absolutely recommend to listen

https://qcast.page.link/epe21N5nuUNChhbh6

Regards,
Fel  

Well pointed question rosskata, just my quick thoughts:

I think a lot of Government grants/Subsidies involved here

Your question on cost can be sliced in different ways. Of course there are additional costs given you need people, electricity etc etc. BUT. I think the facility might ensure additional revenue that was not available from the Aachen factory, for example (and that are just my thoughts) if ST Micro requires a production footprint in Italy from their supplier because ST itself received subsidies from the Italian state. If Aix had not had the footprint it would not be electable for an order.

Another scenario: yes, again, extra cost for running the facility but if you make a profit / margin from that facility, that’s fine, right?

So I think that was roughly what Grawert meant to say on the call.. he just not found the right wording. Or did not want to give too much away.

https://techfundingnews.com/...to-invest-nearly-e10b-in-chips-report/