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interessant
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gut analysiert
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Stichwort Doppeltief: Kriterium u.a. "Der Abstand zwischen beiden Tiefs muss MINDESTENS ca. einen Monat betragen". Und nicht 2 Wochen wie aktuell.
Das Doppeltief könnt ihr also als Rettungsanker vergessen, liebe Optimisten.
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In Japan führte die platzende Immobilienblase ebenfalls zu einem Crash der gesamten Wirtschaft und natürlich auch des Aktienmarktes; plötzlich waren die Häuser weit weniger Wert als die dafür aufgenommenen Kredite; das Eigenkapital war verbrannt, die sich ergebende Wirtschaftskrise machte die Rückzahlung der Kredite unmöglich. Die " Notlösung" war eine Reduzierung der Zinssätze auf nahezu Null. Wenn Bernanke jetzt immer noch von Bekämpfung der Inflation spricht und den Zinssatz nicht senkt, wird sich die Situation im Immobilienbereich weiter verschlimmern und eine ernste Wirtschaftskrise wird die Folge sein.
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Ich frage mich, was passiert, wenn die Zinsen gesenkt werden. Das könnte doch wg. Carry-Trades und möglicher Treasuries-Verkäufe aus China bis zum Dollar-Crash führen, oder?
Btw. Greenspans erstes Jahr 1987 war auch nicht gerade sein einfachstes. Scheint so zu sein, das neue FED-chefs erstmal durch die Hölle müssen.
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By Daniel Taub
March 28 (Bloomberg) -- The words ``New Century'' used to flash several times a day on caller ID at Taleo Mexican Grill in Irvine, California, where diners wash down Salmon Veracruz with $7 hand-shaken margaritas. Reservations were often for 10 or more.
Not anymore, said Nic Villarreal, the owner of the restaurant, located two blocks from New Century Financial Corp.'s headquarters. ``We don't get any.''
In Irvine, where just nine months ago office vacancies approached a three-year low, home prices were at an all-time high, and unemployment was less than the national average, at just 3.6 percent, the unraveling subprime mortgage market is ruining the recent prosperity.
Hometown lenders including New Century and Ameriquest Mortgage Co. already have fired more than 3,000 people, house and condominium prices are down 17 percent since June and office vacancy rates are poised to double this year, said John McDermott, regional manager for Orange County at commercial real estate broker Sperry Van Ness.
``It's a huge engine that has been shut off,'' McDermott said. ``I don't know where the new influx of jobs are if you take the lending market out of the equation.''
At Phillips Auto in nearby Newport Beach, California, no one from the mortgage industry is shopping for Porsches these days, said Theresa Seradsky, the dealership's general sales manager. Instead, they're putting their Porsches up for sale through the consignment program, she said.
No Buyers
``Two years ago, every other day we had somebody coming in to buy,'' Seradsky said. ``In the last two weeks, we've had nobody.''
New Century, Irvine's second-biggest employer, may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection after the lender to people with bad or limited credit said New York-based Morgan Stanley and UBS AG of Zurich were among the companies that cut off access to $17.4 billion of credit lines. New Century is supposed to be the anchor tenant of an almost-complete, 20-story office tower being built by Maguire Properties Inc.
``We don't have any comment on industry rumors or speculation,'' said New Century spokeswoman Laura Oberhelman. ``There has not been a bankruptcy filing.''
The collapse of the subprime industry probably will affect everyone from printer-paper suppliers to office-maintenance companies to retailers who depend on employees of lenders including New Century for sales, said Jacquie Ellis, president of the Irvine Chamber of Commerce. Before its collapse, New Century had 7,400 employees, compared with 8,600 at the University of California, Irvine, she said.
`Massive Layoffs' Coming
``There are going to be massive layoffs and maybe something worse than that,'' Ellis said. ``You wonder what impact it's going to have on other companies as well.''
Cracks in the mortgage market began to appear last year. U.S. subprime borrowers fell behind on their payments at the highest rate in four years during the fourth quarter, according to data compiled by the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association.
The Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, North Carolina, expects the foreclosure rate for subprime loans to exceed 22 percent in California metropolitan areas including Irvine, Merced, Bakersfield, Vallejo-Fairfield, Fresno, Stockton, Santa Ana, Anaheim and Riverside.
Half of the 20 biggest U.S. subprime lenders are in California, including three in Irvine, and about 13 percent of the nation's subprime loans are in the state, according to the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association and industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance of Bethesda, Maryland.
More than two dozen mortgage lenders have closed or sought buyers since the beginning of the year. Irvine-based People's Choice Home Loan Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection last week. H&R Block Inc. is trying to sell its Irvine-based Option One Mortgage Corp. unit. Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., based in San Diego, has offices in Irvine, and Ameriquest is based in Orange, just north of Irvine.
Home Prices Fall
For Irvine's 190,000 residents, the median price for new and resale houses and condominiums was $641,500 in February, down 17 percent from last June's peak of $775,000, according to La Jolla, California-based DataQuick Information Systems. The city's median home price is still almost triple what it was a decade ago.
New buildings with about 2.5 million square feet of space are set to open this year in Irvine, which may boost the city's vacancy rate to about 22 percent from 11.2 percent now, according to a Sperry Van Ness analysis of data from CoStar Group Inc. The rate was at 7.9 percent, close to a three-year low, as recently as the third quarter.
Office Vacancies
Increasing delinquencies in the subprime market may be hardest on Irvine's biggest office owners including closely held Irvine Co. and Los Angeles-based Maguire Properties, which last month agreed to pay $2.88 billion for 22 office complexes in Orange County and two in downtown Los Angeles that Blackstone Group LP acquired in its February takeover of Equity Office Properties Trust, Sperry Van Ness's McDermott said.
New Century leases about 267,000 square feet of space in two buildings at Maguire's Park Place project in Irvine, and agreed to lease about 190,000 square feet, or more than a third, of the space at the new 20-story office building that Maguire plans to complete in the third quarter.
Maguire has said New Century's leases at existing buildings and the new site are at below-market prices and could be replaced at higher rates. Maguire also is trying to sell 11 Orange County properties with about 3 million square feet of space that were formerly Equity Office sites.
Bill Flaherty, senior vice president of marketing for Maguire Properties, said while it may be ``a little choppy in '07,'' even with a worst-case scenario of subprime companies abandoning space, Orange County still will have an office vacancy rate of about 10 percent or 11 percent.
`Some Chop'
``At 10 percent, we're building in those markets, as are our competitors,'' Flaherty said. ``That doesn't mean there won't be some chop, but this isn't a risk-free business we're in.''
Taleo Mexican Grill is in the same Michelson Drive retail- and-office park as Maguire's new building, and restaurant owner Villarreal had prepared for the influx of lunchtime customers from the about 600 New Century workers that would have been there. Instead, lunchtime business is down by as many as 60 people a week, he said. New Century used to call with reservations of 10 to 20 people two or three times a week.
Sales at Baguette Time, a sandwich shop across the parking lot from Taleo, are down about 10 percent in the past several weeks, said owner Mo Khataw. The shop used to get walk-in customers from New Century and made $80 to $100 deliveries to the company once or twice a week.
`Small Guy'
``We're a small guy, so even if we lose $100, $200 a day, that's a lot of money,'' Khataw said.
As recently as last year, loan officers were getting annual pay of as much as $200,000, said Charlyn Cooper, a former manager at subprime lender Secured Funding based in nearby Costa Mesa. Now they're being offered low-paying jobs in call centers.
At the California unemployment office in Santa Ana, which also serves Irvine, fliers in a rack by the door read: ``Home Loan Funding in Irvine is now seeking energetic and enthusiastic customer service representatives. While other mortgage companies are downsizing, we are hiring and expanding!!!''
``Twelve dollars an hour is not a living wage for us,'' said Jorge Perez, who manages the office. ``You can't live here and have an apartment. That's not near what you need to be making.''
Home Loan Funding Inc. representatives didn't return telephone calls seeking comment.
Ankur Kumar, 27, worked in Ameriquest's fraud-detection department from mid-2004 until last May when he lost his job as part of the company's layoffs. In his new career as a fitness trainer, he hopes to have an income of $30,000 this year, compared with more than $40,000 when he worked at Ameriquest.
`Something Risky'
Kumar lives in a five-bedroom Irvine house and pays almost $3,000 a month between his interest-only loan payment and taxes. Kumar rents out three of the house's five bedrooms, which pays for about half his monthly housing expenses. The interest rate on Kumar's adjustable-rate mortgage is scheduled to go up in October. He plans to refinance. ``I'll probably have to do something risky, to be honest,'' he said.
Natalie Lohrenz, director of counseling at the Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Orange County, is meeting with about 65 people a month who are seeking help to avoid defaults on their mortgages. It was about 25 a month last year. She said she has counseled people with monthly mortgages of $4,000 and incomes of $6,000 a month.
``There are plenty of people out there living their lives with two-thirds of their income going to their mortgage,'' Lohrenz said. ``That's something we didn't see a few years ago.''
Even with New Century's collapse, some Orange County real estate brokers and landlords expect space given up by the lender and others in the mortgage industry to be taken by others.
`Resizing'
Doug Holte, western regional partner at closely held real estate developer Hines, which is building a 12-story Irvine office tower scheduled to open in May, said he expects his company to have few problems leasing space at the 266,603-square- foot site. New space, as well as sublease space put on the market by lenders, will likely be absorbed by lawyers, accountants, technology companies and others, he said. This week, Hines announced a 25,400-square-foot lease with Wachovia Corp.
``It's a resizing of an industry that had hyper growth,'' Holte said. ``We didn't really anticipate that that hyper growth would continue.''
The subprime mortgage business's roots in Orange County go back to the emergence of the area's homebuilding industry in the 1960s. Companies such as Newport Beach-based William Lyon Homes Inc. and Lennar Corp. started developing houses in the area, and the two remain among Orange County's largest homebuilders, according to an Orange County Business Journal ranking.
Savings and Loans
They in turn attracted the savings and loan industry, which provided the mortgages used to purchase homes, said Peter Navarro, a business professor at the University of California, Irvine.
After the collapse of the savings and loans in the 1980s, executives from that industry started subprime and other mortgage lenders, said Melissa Richards, general counsel for the California Mortgage Bankers Association. Their time at savings and loans gave them experience dealing with investment banks, which ended up buying packages of loans from subprime lenders for mortgage-backed securities, she said.
``You have the developers there, and you had the need for companies to get people into homes they can't afford,'' Navarro said. ``And that's how I'd describe the subprime industry.''
The 65-square-mile city of Irvine last year was named by the U.S. Census Bureau as one of the county's 10 fastest-growing cities. Once entirely part of the 120,000-acre Irvine Ranch, which was assembled through Mexican and Spanish land grants, Irvine has grown to 190,000 residents from 10,081 when the city was incorporated in 1971.
Irvine Ranch
In the 1960s, as urbanization moved south from Los Angeles County, Irvine Co., which was formed to manage Irvine Ranch, began designing master-planned communities for the land. The closely held company sells land to homebuilders who construct residential villages following Irvine Co.'s designs.
Irvine's residential neighborhoods, many in gated communities, are dense with beige-colored houses with Spanish- tile roofs, each home looking almost exactly like the one next to it. Covenants, conditions and restrictions homeowners must follow keep homes looking similar and their yards free of clutter.
The city's median home price is about 36 percent higher than the state average, according to DataQuick.
Beth Krom, Irvine's mayor since 2004 and a city council member for four years before that, said housing affordability is one of the city's biggest issues. The increase in prices has outpaced incomes, she said.
``This isn't Beverly Hills,'' Krom said. ``It's not a community where everybody is living next door to a millionaire. Many people couldn't afford to move back into their homes today.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Taub in Los Angeles at dtaub@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: March 28, 2007 00:12 EDT
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Risk Runs High for Continued Correction
By Mark Manning
Street.com Contributor
3/28/2007 3:30 PM EDT
Technical Analysis
* The Dow will probably test the March lows.
* Watch 1425 on the S&P 500.
* The NDX still has a topping formation.
How much of a correction is enough?
The problem with corrections that only last a few weeks is that they don't give the indices or stocks enough time to build proper bases. One way to assess whether a correction has adequately worked the froth out of the market is to see how many good-looking charts are on the long side. When you have an abundance to choose from, you'll know the correction has done its work.
Based on my latest research, I'm turning up many more companies that look like better shorts than longs.
In my March 23 column, I suggested that investors should question the short duration of the recent correction. My intermediate-term indicators had not yet turned positive, but were fairly close to doing so. However, I warned that the correction was awfully brief after the run we had, and investors should remain cautious.
At first glance, yesterday didn't look too bad until you considered that breadth was terrible in all the indices and major sectors. We also saw very weak readings in advancers vs. decliners and new highs to new lows.
Let's take a look at the charts.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced up near the lower part of the recent intermediate-term trend line, which it had broken in late February. It is now rolling off of the 12,500 level, and the current action suggests that it will at least test the March lows.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 has also had the classic bounce back up to the broken trend line and now looks like it will test its March lows if it breaks below 1425.
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1. ein sehr langes warten auf ein ereignis, wo man wieder in steigende kurse investiert, was vielleicht nicht überhaupt nicht kommt. oder
2. der verpassten chance des einstiegs erst mal nachzutrauern und mehrere points (wenn nicht hunderte) später einzusteigen, nachdem man begriffen hat, dass der markt immer höher steigt.
insofern sind wird m.m.n. immer unwissende. anders herum wär's ja zu schön , um wahr zu sein, oder?
wenn an der börse nur 5% der teilnehmer gewinne machen (vielleicht sind es auch weniger), dann müssen doch 95% zwangsläufig in die irre geführt und zu verlusten verleitet werden.
greetz uedewo
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Ok, das klingt absolut und wir können uns hier irren. ABER: Das Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis spricht zur Zeit klar gegen ein Investment in Aktien. Natürlich kann - und wird man auch langfristig - mit der Augen-zu-und-durch-Taktik gewinnen, aber das Warten verspricht zur Zeit deutlich lukrativer zu sein.
Sollten die Kurse wieder über alte Hochs steigen - was soll's. Dann kann man immer noch kaufen, vorausgesetzt das Umfeld stimmt.
Ich weiß übrigens aus eigener Erfahrung, dass es für einen Bullen äußerst schwer ist, dem Markt fernzubleiben weil verpasste Gewinne mehr schmerzen als erlittene Verluste. Aber irgendwann kommt der Punkt wo du es nicht mehr so siehst weil du zu oft auf die Fresse gefallen bist oder - noch besser - du lernst die Marktbewegungen vorauszuahnen.
Vielleicht hilft dir das dabei: Die durchschnittliche Hausse-Länge im Dow beträgt sein ca. 100 Jahren 8 Monate, das Maximum 9 Monate (3 mal erreicht). Geht man davon aus, dass die aktuelle Hausse im Juni/Juli 2006 gestartet ist waren die 9 Monate Ende Februar/Anfang März vorbei. Also: Nach spätestens 8 Monaten solltest du stets skeptisch werden und auf dein Bauch-Gefühl hören.
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Ok, das klingt absolut und wir können uns hier irren. ABER: Das Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis spricht zur Zeit klar gegen ein Investment in Aktien. Natürlich kann - und wird man auch langfristig - mit der Augen-zu-und-durch-Taktik gewinnen, aber das Warten verspricht zur Zeit deutlich lukrativer zu sein.
Sollten die Kurse wieder über alte Hochs steigen - was soll's. Dann kann man immer noch kaufen, vorausgesetzt das Umfeld stimmt.
Ich weiß übrigens aus eigener Erfahrung, dass es für einen Bullen äußerst schwer ist, dem Markt fernzubleiben weil verpasste Gewinne mehr schmerzen als erlittene Verluste. Aber irgendwann kommt der Punkt wo du es nicht mehr so siehst weil du zu oft auf die Fresse gefallen bist oder - noch besser - du lernst die Marktbewegungen vorauszuahnen.
Vielleicht hilft dir das dabei: Die durchschnittliche Hausse-Länge im Dow beträgt sein ca. 100 Jahren 8 Monate, das Maximum 9 Monate (3 mal erreicht). Geht man davon aus, dass die aktuelle Hausse im Juni/Juli 2006 gestartet ist waren die 9 Monate Ende Februar/Anfang März vorbei. Also: Nach spätestens 8 Monaten solltest du stets skeptisch werden und auf dein Bauch-Gefühl hören.
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Tensions in the Gulf
If the Iranian/UK situation deteriorates further, oil could hit $100 or more
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:28 PM ET Mar 28, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Iran has more power than you think -- at least when it comes to influencing oil. And while no one really believes Iran's capture of British troops in the Persian Gulf will result in an all-out war, any major escalation in the situation would have a significant impact on the oil price.
The May crude contract has risen past $64 a barrel as of Wednesday, up almost 5% following Iran's arrest of 15 British sailors in the Persian Gulf on March 23. Iran claims the sailors and marines were illegally in Iranian waters, while Britain says they were in Iraqi waters and has offered proof in support.
True, the most likely outcome is a gradual resolution to the situation, without much more provocation on Iran's part, analysts said. But experts can't rule out the possibility that the situation deteriorates further - and boosts crude to record levels. "My instincts still say this is the eighth or ninth inning, but Iran/U.K. could extend the game into extra innings," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service.
Even an unsubstantiated rumor of a military action in the Gulf rallied crude prices to a high of $68.09 a barrel in electronic trading Tuesday night. Prices promptly lost the bulk of their gains as the speculation died down. But "when it comes to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf -- it's interesting prices aren't already above $70 a barrel," said John Kilduff, an analyst at Fimat USA. Around 20% of the world's daily oil production travels through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the key shipping channel linking the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. As this detainee crisis drags on, oil prices will see a steady climb higher until we can get "some signal that there can be some sort of diplomatic climb-down," said Kilduff.
Meanwhile, Russian military intelligence services said there's a flurry of activity by U.S. armed forces near Iran's borders, Russian news and information agency Novosti reported Tuesday. The news agency also said the U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf had reached a level not seen since shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, although a representative of the U.S. Fifth Fleet said ships will keep out of Iranian waters, Novosti reported Wednesday.
Still, "the ease for some sort of military incident to occur has oil prices representing almost a coiled spring ready to leap at the first word of any incident," said Kilduff. With so many military assets "knocking around so close together," there's the possibility of an "unintended military incident," said Kilduff. That could push prices to $80 a barrel, at least until the market is able to sort out the exact details, he said.
Likely scenario
With not one, but two American carrier groups and U.K. forces close at hand in the Gulf and Iraq, "it's hard to think the Iranians would be so foolish as to take violent action," said Anthony Sabino, a professor of law at St. John's University, whose practice includes oil and gas law.
So under the most likely scenario, oil prices will continue to grind higher as this situation drags on into next week, said Kilduff. By then, Iran and the U.K. are likely to orchestrate a release of the detainees and prices should come down.
James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, pictures Iran starting to back down in stages, with the first step being an agreement to allow the British access to the troops.
"The problem is that Iran's fractured government takes time to react," Williams said.
"Neither Iran, nor Britain, nor the U.S. have any interest in seeing this event escalate into a true crisis," said Bernard Picchi, senior managing director at Wall Street Access.
Picchi believes the Western press and oil traders are magnifying the story but that at the end of the day, quiet diplomacy will prevail. "Notice that Iran seems to be pretty much on its own on this one," said Sabino. "No one is running to take their side." And if things do settle down, oil prices could retreat to around $60 per barrel, Picchi said. "The production cuts from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries "have actually worked, world demand has held up, and depletion in the West is as serious a problem as it's ever been," he said.
Unlikely scenario
Picchi also admits that if he's wrong, the oil market may rally -- and rally hard.
As it stands, if the British sailors are not released soon, Gary Dorsch, editor of the Global Money Trends newsletter expects crude prices to climb toward $68 a barrel. And if war breaks out, "crude oil could top $100 per barrel," Dorsch said.
Darin Newsom, an analyst at Omaha, Nebraska-based DTN expects the tension to heat up. "Iran appears in no hurry to back down on any issue as the destabilized Middle East offers no threat to them. This is their opportunity to flex their muscles," he said.
And "if the U.S. and Britain try to interdict oil shipments out of Iran, oil prices will go vertical," Picchi said. Prices may first make a bid toward $80, then $90 -- "you get the picture."
At the same time, given the facts presented, Iran is in the position of having to defend its troops being in Iraqi waters, said Williams. "Iran invaded Iraq and performed a military option in Iraqi territory," he said. So "what seemed to be a relatively lower risk way to divert attention from the Iranian nuclear issue has now resulted in Iran putting itself in a position to defend why it invaded Iraqi territory," he said. "It is an act of war."
The British have the legal right to retaliate, he said, though short of an all-out invasion of Iran, more extreme actions "could involve ratcheting up the level of sanctions or even interference with Iranian shipping," he said. And, of course, the most extreme scenario would be an invasion of Iran. "This would shut down shipping in the Persian Gulf, sending oil prices to $100 per barrel or higher as military action would likely mean the halt of shipments by other Gulf producers as well," said Williams.
"Even if only Iranian oil was involved, the loss of 2.5 million barrels per day of Iranian exports would erase all of the spare capacity in the world," he said. Any skirmish in the Persian Gulf, particularly if Iran was to threaten or actually shut in some of its oil, could become of "matter of how much past $100 oil we get," said Fimat's Kilduff. In that case, "look for an area north of $110, $120."
All the excitement aside, the oil rally is really all in a day's work for the market.
In the end, for crude oil, "the situation isn't that much different than what we saw last year," said DTN's Newsom. "The [Öl- (A.L.)] market is beginning to rally on 'what-if, could-bes and maybes,' -- just replace Iraq with Iran with the constant being Nigerian [production] problems."
Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
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Eins nur noch: Mir hat es noch nie weh getan, die Börse ohne mich steigen zu sehen. Weit schmerzlicher habe ich es immer empfunden, gemeinsam mit der Horde im Abgrund zu versinken. Das steht mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit wieder bevor - aufgrund der hier im Thread geposteten Argumente. Wenn Du "kaufen und halten" willst wie jeder Normal-Aktionär, sei Dir dies unbenommen. Versuch aber bitte nicht, uns davon überzeugen zu wollen. Es ist schlicht vergeudete Energie und nimmt diesem Thread nur die ROTE Linie.
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Ich bin jedoch etwas "konservativer" eingestellt: Für mich ist es das Wichtigste an der Börse, sein Kapital zu ERHALTEN. Dazu gehört auch, zu Zeiten, da das Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis sehr ungünstig ist wie jetzt, entweder nicht investiert zu sein (= defensive Variante) oder mit einer kleineren Short-Position auf fallende Kurse zu setzen (= aggressive Variante). Die Short-Position sollte dabei so klein gewählt werden, dass der erste Grundsatz - sein Kapital zu erhalten - selbst bei einem Totalverlust dieser Short-Position nicht nennenswert gefährdet ist.
Wie ich aus Gesprächen und BMs mit vielen Arivaner weiß, gibt es hier im Board nicht wenige, die Ende der 1990-er Jahre erstmals an der Börse eingestiegen sind und sich bis heute - trotz der starken Anstiege der letzten vier Jahre - nicht von den Blessuren den 2000-2002-Bärenmarktes erholt haben. Sie haben durch mangelhaftes Risikomanagement (kein SL usw.) versäumt, sich an das IMHO oberste Gebot der Börse zu halten: KAPITALERHALT.
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Du propagierst nun schon seit 15 Monaten die Positionierung gegen das smart Money und fühlst dich immer wieder neu bestätigt, obwohl du keinerlei Erfolge nachweisen kannst.
Statt dessen unentwegte Durchhalteparolen und Phrasendrescherei zwecks keep alive the spirit.
Das du ausgerechnet als kurzfristiges Kursziel für den S&P 500 nun mindestens 1350 nennst ist insofern erstaunlich, als das knapp darüber eine massive Unterstützung liegt an der kürzlich Rekordumsätze long zu verzeichnen waren. Und es ist so nicht das erstes Mal.
Ein Schelm wer böses denkt.
Ich bin gespannt wie es weiter geht und wieviele Dumme sich noch finden lassen. ;)
Optionen
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By William Selway
March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Florida's tax receipts are falling for the first time since 1975 as a slump in construction and home sales dims the economy of the Sunshine State.
``We've been on a pretty steep incline,'' said Florida State Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster, a Republican from Winter Garden. ``There was always going to be an end to that, and it's flattened out.'"States from New Jersey to California are getting pinched, just a year after many enacted the biggest spending increases in almost two decades. They're drawing down $16.6 billion from reserves this year -- 29 percent of their total savings -- even as legislators debate tax cuts and plans toexpand programs such as government-subsidized health insurance.`A lot of states are starting to worry,'' said Iris Lav, who follows state budgets for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonprofit Washington group that monitors state finances. ``We have yet to see the effects of the bursting of the property bubble.''
States depend on sales and income taxes for about two-thirds of their revenue, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. A decline in new home sales depresses employment in the construction industry. Falling prices of existing houses also discourage people from borrowing against home equity. The result is lower consumer spending, and less tax revenue. New home sales unexpectedly fell in February to the lowest level in almost seven years, the U.S. Commerce Department reported March 26.
State revenue growth will be less than half what it was last year, rising 3.1 percent, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. State spending has been expanding at more than twice that rate.
``Despite a momentary cash infusion, we are operating in a deficit environment, with out-year deficits conservatively estimated in the tens of billions of dollars,'' New York Governor Eliot Spitzer said in a Jan. 3 state-of-the-state speech.......
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...d=20601103&sid=aaxEGhOqB5eg&refer=us
unglaublich auch diese Geschichte:
Al Ynigues bought his first house in 2004. Since October, his monthly mortgage payment has climbed 16 percent, to $2,417. It will rise again April 1.
Ynigues, 65, makes $2,800 a month as a self-employed music teacher. He says he eats once a day, has stopped paying his utility bills, and is late on payments for his home in Apple Valley, Minnesota, 20 miles south of St. Paul.``My mortgage has changed everything,'' said Ynigues. ``It's really demoralizing.''
Ynigues is one of about 800,000 U.S. homeowners who took out so-called subprime mortgages and now are struggling to make monthly payments.