Inflationsängste plus Spekulation um Zentralbankkäufe treiben den Goldkurs:
Gold Heads for Weekly Gain on Speculation Central Banks May Buy
Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold headed for a second consecutive weekly gain in London on speculation that central banks, the biggest holders of the metal, may buy more bullion to diversify their reserves.
Russia's central bank in November said it may double its gold reserves. South Africa and Argentina have also said they may increase their holdings. Central banks, mainly in the U.S. and Europe, hold almost a fifth of the world's gold as a reserve asset.
``Some investors are buying gold partly in anticipation of central bank buying,'' Stephen Briggs, a London-based analyst at Societe Generale, said in an interview today.
Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $5.40, or 1 percent, to $530.20 an ounce in London and was trading at $528.30 as of 11:26 a.m. local time. The metal has gained 2.2 percent this week, after adding 2.8 percent last week.
``The market believes that central banks such as in Asia are or are going to start buying, although we have not seen any evidence of this,'' Briggs said. ``Bad facts are ignored, good hopes are focused on. That's what happens in a bull market.''
Central banks in Asia hold more limited amounts of gold than in Europe or the U.S. The value of China's reported gold holdings represented only 1.1 percent of total reserves in the first nine months of 2005, the lowest among the 15 biggest central banks that maintain bullion reserves, Credit Suisse First Boston said in a Dec. 8 report.
Even a modest increase in its gold holdings, for example to 5 percent of the value of its total reserves, would equate to extra bullion demand of 2,340 tons, or 67 percent of annual global consumption, the bank said.
Gold Fix
There are increasingly big swings in gold prices, Briggs said. That has slowed price-setting at the twice-daily gold ``fix'' in London. Societe Generale, HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays Plc and Deutsche Bank AG conduct the fix, which sets a worldwide benchmark for gold prices.
``It took 45 minutes yesterday to decide the afternoon fix, because they couldn't agree on a price,'' Briggs said. ``The fix normally takes about 10 minutes.''
Gold may rise as high as $600 an ounce, John Meyer, an analyst at Numis Securities Ltd. in London, said in an interview today. Gold may be buoyed by ``inflationary pressures coming through with the oil price, and with central banks looking to buy gold,'' he said.
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