zwar schon 6 Tage alt ... ich weiss nicht - ob's mittlerweile eine neuere Berechnung gibt - ich fand diese Berechnung sehr interessant und ist für mich recht schlüssig.
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Posted by: guigui1519
Date: Thursday, July 10, 2008 12:55:57 AM---------------------
As for a PPS estimate.. here is my best educated guess.
Based on this..
Gwenco has the right to mine an estimated 11,209,200 tons,5,670,000 tons of which are considered to be recoverable (including 1,782,300 tons from the Lower Cedar Grove seam and 2,333,000 tons from the Pond Creek seam). Mining engineers estimate minimum production to be between 7,000 to 10,000 clean tons per month for the first six months.
And this.. (remember I am HUGELY undervaluing the value of their coal as it is worth well more than $87/ton now..but to be safe I'll use this number as it is locked in in their contract and no matter how poor they are at negotiating.. they will not settle for less than that)
Here's what Gwenco told the BK Judge.
Total Sales Price $87
Operating Costs $58
Gross profit $29 per ton
The following chart represents the estimated cost of operations forGwenco:
[All costs are per ton]
Mining Cost – White Star Mining LLC (includes labor andsupplies) $32.00
Trucking and handling $5.00
Reclamation & Maintenance $0.10
Insurance GL and Equip $0.15
Estimated maximum royalties (8%) $6.96
Electric $0.70
Belt & Structure / Infrastructure $3.00
Admin / Bk / Accountant / Lawyer $2.00
Federal Black lung $1.10
Ky Severence $3.91
OSM $0.15
Engineering $0.50
Operating reserve $2.43
Total Cost $58.00
So.. we're looking at 5,670,000 recoverable tons. As I said earlier to pin an absolute minimum value on this stock we'll say the profit margin is $29. Also we'll say the OS is 975Million as that is the maximum they are allowed to possess under their bankruptcy agreement. I wasn't kidding this is the lowest possible value for this stock.5,670,000 x $29 = $164,430,000
$164,430,000 / 975,000,000 =
$0.1686/shareHow do we feel now? :) In 5 minutes I just convinced myself to stay until I see 20 cents.
Remember this is an absolute low.. and at NO MULTIPLE! If we start talking 3x multiple.. that's already $0.50 /share :)
See you all tomorrow
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Source:
iHub Posting 5065--------------
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Alles wie immer IMHO! Das ist nur "meine" Meinung und dient nicht als Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung. Jeder handelt auf eigenes Risiko.