"Chris Parkinson -- Mizuho Securities -- Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking my question. Just kind of a corollary of a bunch of these questions on potash, but it seems as though that Russians have figured out how to utilize their port systems and get some product out there, perhaps a little bit better than expected. But prices are still basically holding in.
It seems that Belarusians are kind of at the lower end of that in terms of normalized export rates. In terms of everybody trying to evaluate this over the next two to three years in terms of how tight the SD will actually be, what's your updated detailed assessment of that shortfall into next year, into 2023? I mean, how much can both countries really ultimately figure out to get more tons '23 versus '22? And just perhaps your major considerations?
Ken Seitz -- Interim President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Well, thanks, Chris, for the question. And -- yes, there's certainly a lot of moving parts. And we're all seeing reports of various forms of shipment.
We're not coming out of Russian and Belarus. Our estimate is that for the first half of 2022, Russian exports are down about 25%. So that's a pretty significant number. And then, with Belarus still not having access to tidewater via Lithuania, we estimate that their first half shipments are down 50%.
So, really quite significant out of that part of the world. And again, recalling that shipments out of Russia at least weren't constrained in the first two months of this year. As we look forward, what -- for the balance of 2022 and into 2023, what might that look like? And, yes, for 2022, again, we expect the Russian shipments could be constrained by up as much as that 25% full year. And then similarly with Belarus for 2022, we expect exports could be constrained by 50% to 65% compared to 2021 level.
So again, really quite significant. Our assumptions for 2023 show that out of Russia, at least, we'll see more volume coming and some channels will be developed. After all, Russian potash is not sanctioned. It's just that financing activities and those segments are making it somewhat difficult at the moment.
But for 2023, coming out of Russia, we think that production might be down in the range of, say, 5% to 20% from 2021 levels. And then out of Belarus, again, much more significant because of these challenges getting to port. And out of Belarus, our assumption for 2023 is maybe 30% to 50% of production down from 2021 levels. So that's what's in our assumptions, in our numbers.
I know that, Chris, we see reports, for example, of Belarus looking at shipping volumes via containers through the ports of St. Petersburg and lot of up stock, that's -- I can tell you, I have experience of that from Canpotex, that's a real challenge. They're always talking about two million to three million tons. So actually, the volumes are relatively small, but even for two million tons, that's 80,000 containers of potash.
And at the load port those you need to tip up a container and stuff them full of potash, and even more challenging at the discharge port, they need to be equipped to tip those containers and empty of them. So I think it remains to be seen how successful that will be. But even if they're fully successful, it's only two million to three million tons, which, by the way, they have to do in order to meet at the bottom end of our range. So that's at least how at the moment, we're seeing things unfold and, hence, our view that the fundamentals for potash are going to remain strong right through 2022, right through 2023, and then it's going to be a supply constrained market."
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/...gs-call-transcript/
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