"A single book, written in 1997, signalled every significant foreign policy move of the Russian Federation over the following two decades. The United States, Europe, and every nation intertwined with Russia failed to see the signs. From the annexation of Crimea to Britain’s exit from the European Union, the grand strategy laid out in Aleksandr Dugin’s Foundation of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia has unfolded beautifully in a disastrous manner for the western rules-based international order. Perhaps, his words also telegraph the belligerent Putin’s future intentions."
"Aleksandr Gelyevich Dugin is a Russian political theorist with controversial views and ideas. He is a contributing author to the Katehon think tank, which the New York Times accuses of pushing Russian propaganda through fake news-media sites. His website operates in 38 languages and displays far-right ideas recognizable in Russian domestic politics. Dugin has planned courses for the Russian military General Staff Academy, stood as a Department Head at Moscow State University, and been featured prominently on both Russian state-run media and conservative media with close ties to the Russian government. Journalists, albeit western ones, have called him “Putin’s Brain” and “Putin’s Favorite Philosopher.” The accolades go on."
"Dugin presents the world order as one of the Tellurocracies (Land Powers) versus the Thalassocracies (Sea Powers)—of Eurasia versus the Atlanticists. The Atlanticists, Dugin claims, are the United States, Britain, and Europe, and they seek to dominate the world through NATO and other international institutions. In the socio-political spectrum, Dugin is a traditionalist, a fascist, and an anti-Semite. In the geopolitical realm, he is an aggressive Russian nationalist. Most telling, however, is how many of his earlier strategies and destructive stratagems have come to fruition."
Visions Yet to Come
Dugin’s strategic vision spans the entirety of the world; it is ambitious and reeks of eschatological fantasies. There are, however, several points that can be seen as near-term concerns for western powers. The cornerstones of his grand strategy, Dunlop says, come in the form of three axes: the Moscow-Berlin Axis, the Moscow-Tokyo Axis, and the Moscow-Tehran Axis. The Moscow-Berlin Axis focuses on the separation of former-Soviet states in Europe from the Atlanticists, specifically, breaking them away from the European Union and NATO. The Moscow-Tokyo Axis seeks to combat China. The Moscow-Tehran Axis aims to influence the Islamic world. The critical points Dugin makes are not so much in the headlines of this grand strategy, as they are in the stratagems meant for execution.
The Moscow-Berlin Axis seems the most familiar in the West’s interaction with Russia. It should be no surprise that Russia sees NATO and the European Union as threats to its objectives in Europe. Dugin refers to Halford Mackinder’s strategy of a cordon sanitaire of post-Soviet nations to provide a buffer between Russia and the West—from the Baltic to the Balkans. To counter this, Dugin seeks to push Great Britain and France away from Europe, increase engagement with Germany, and absorb the rest of Europe into a “European Empire” to act as the western extension of Eurasia. Dugin further wants to destabilize Great Britain by promoting “separatist tendencies” in Scotland, Ireland, and Wales. With Great Britain out of the EU, France distanced from NATO, and increasingly hostile narratives aimed at the Western international order from around the globe, Dugin’s vision for Europe is not all that fantastical.
In the Moscow-Tokyo Axis, Dugin sees one obvious choice to ally with India, and one difficult choice between China and Japan. The only role for India in this stratagem is as a strategic outpost of Eurasia as an ally against the West and a key economic partner. This stratagem has recently come to fruition in the form of a Free Trade Agreement between India and the Eurasian Economic Union. With Japan, Dugin argues that its strategic positioning, its varied resources compared to Russia, and growing dissent between the Japanese and the Americans make it a prime choice for an ally.
Shinzo Abe and Vladimir Putin meet at the Kremlin in Moscow in 2019. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP)
On the other hand, Dugin sees China as a threat, because it increasingly seeks to expand into post-soviet Central Asia. Even today, Russia finds itself in competition with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, specifically in Kazakhstan. The Moscow-Tokyo Axis does diverge somewhat from the current reality. Although Putin and Japanese President Shinzo Abe have met no less than 25 times in an attempt to improve relations, the United States has so far succeeded in keeping Japan on its side of competition. The longevity of Chinese-Russian relations is also up for debate.
As for the Moscow-Tehran Axis, Dugin explicitly calls out Iran and Libya as possible strategic partners against Atlanticists and cites the need to use Turkey as a scape-goat. “The idea of a continental Russian-Islamic alliance lies at the heart of the anti-Atlanticist strategy on the southwest coast of the Eurasian continent,” he explains.[5] Russia has twice tried to convince the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to join its post-Soviet alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), once in 2007 and again in 2015. Late last year, in an attempt to exploit the United States’ absence and gain favor with Iran, the Collective Security Treaty Organization promised to uphold the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Iran has likely refused to join on each occasion because Russia has also sought greater influence with Israel, a sworn enemy of Iran.
It is important to note that Libya has fundamentally changed since overthrowing Muammar Gaddafi, but the point stands nonetheless. Libya has enough oil reserves to be the largest exporter in Africa. Putin attempted for some time to lobby both sides of the Libyan civil war, ebbing and flowing his support between the two. Lately, Russian military support has taken the form of nearly 1,000 mercenaries from the Russian proxy mercenary group, Wagner. Should Putin succeed in resolving the conflict, he will have a significant strategic foothold in the underbelly of Europe.
https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2020/5/...ons-of-geopolitics
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